Overview
This guide shows the different probabilities of certain occasions arising from single enemy multiple shot skills in XCOM 2: Rapid Fire, Chain Shot, Lightning Hands, Quick Draw, Fan Fire, and Overdrive. This is in order to help you make more informed choices during the tactical game. This guide does not account for dodge or crit values, nor does it describe the capabilities of Reaper, Kill Zone, Faceoff, Serial, or Guardian.
Introduction
If you have played XCOM 2 for any great length, you will likely have used a multiple shot skill against an enemy. You probably will have wondered something along the lines of “is using this skill right now really worth it? I mean, I could miss half my shots, or there might be a Sectopod around the corner, but I really do need to kill this Chryssalid…”
For these situations, I created these Multiple Shot Skill Odds and Outcomes Graphs, a handy reference guide to how likely a particular outcome is when attacking a single enemy.
How to use the graphs
Below I’ve outlined a method for using these graphs in a tactical context within XCOM 2; if you have trouble interpreting graphs, then hopefully this section will be of some use to you.
The Odds graphs are for estimating the likelihoods of how many shots will hit the target with a given skill.
Example: “My Sharpshooter’s pistol shows a 55% chance to hit. What are the odds of getting three, two, one or no shots on target if I use Fan Fire?”
- Start on the x-axis (on the bottom).
- Find your probability, expressed as a decimal.
- Work your way up to the line(s) that you want to find the odds for.
- Scan horizontally until you reach the y-axis (on the left).
- Read the probability of the event off the y-axis.
In this instance, the outcomes read out as 9% for no hits, 33% for one hit, 40% for two hits and 17% for three hits.
The Outcomes graphs are for estimating the likelihoods of at least a given number of shots hitting a target.
Example: “My Ranger can shoot a nearby ADVENT Captain with her storm gun. The Captain only has two HP left, so even a glancing shot will kill it. However, the UI says that a Rapid Fire shot has a 70% chance of hitting it. Given that I get two shots, what is the overall likelihood that I manage to take this enemy out? Is it better than just using a normal shot?
- Start on the x-axis (on the bottom).
- Find your probability, expressed as a decimal.
- Work your way up to the line(s) that you want to find the odds for.
- Scan horizontally until you reach the y-axis (on the left).
- Read the probability of the event off the y-axis.
In this instance, you have a 90% chance of hitting the ADVENT Captain. This is above the dotted line (the single shot odds), so you are probably better off using Rapid Fire.
Rapid Fire
Rapid fire is one of the few skills that carried over from XCOM Enemy Unknown. I previously wrote a guide for when it is better to use Rapid Fire to maximise your chances of hitting an enemy; said guide can be found right here .
The way Rapid Fire works is that the original shot percentage is lowered by a value of 15%, but then the shot is taken twice. In most cases this increases the chances of the enemy being hit.
Fig 2: Graph showing the odds of at least one or two of the shots hitting the target, with the outcome likelihood on the y-axis and the shot chance displayed on the game on the x-axis. The dashed line shows the odds of a normal shot. “H” means “hit”, “M” means “miss”.
As seen in Fig 2, the odds of hitting at least once with rapid fire are greater than with a single shot above 33% and below 97%. (See the aforementioned XCOM EU guide for algebraic solution.)
Chain Shot and Holo Targeting
Chain Shot is a slightly less useful version of rapid fire, but is still has its uses at close range or from an elevated position.
Chain Shot reduces hit chance by a value of 15%; should the shot hit, a second shot is taken. This is slightly different to Rapid Fire, as the odds of both shots hitting is significantly reduced, as the second shot is dependent on the first succeeding.
Holo Targeting makes this a little more interesting; as it procs after the first shot, the 15% aim bonus negates the 15% aim penalty on the second shot.
Fig 4: Graph showing the odds of both, one, or no shots hitting the target, with the outcome likelihood on the y-axis and the shot chance displayed on the game on the x-axis. The dashed line shows the odds of a normal shot. “H” means “hit”, “M” means “miss”. This graph accounts for the effects of Holo Targeting.
Chain Shot has no value for increasing the likelihood of hitting once (like Rapid Fire can) due to the dependency of the second shot. However, Holo Targeting makes it more likely – up to an extra 12.75% – that both shots will hit, as opposed to just the one. (Note that without Holo Targeting, the odds of Chain Shot hitting twice are identical to those of Rapid Fire.)
Fig 5: Graph showing the odds of both shots hitting the target, with Holo Targeting and without it. The outcome likelihood is on the y-axis and the shot chance displayed on the game is on the x-axis. The grey line shows the odds of a normal shot.
Fan Fire, Lightning Hands and Quickdraw
Fan Fire is a Colonel-level skill that allows for three pistol shots on a single target. Unlike the previous two skills, there are no aim penalties caused by using the pistol. It also does not depend on the success of previous shots (unlike Chain Shot).
Fig 6: Graph showing the odds of three, two, one, or no shots hitting the target, with the outcome likelihood on the y-axis and the shot chance displayed on the game on the x-axis. “H” means “hit”, “M” means “miss”.
Fig 7: Graph showing the odds of at least one, two, or three of the shots hitting the target, with the outcome likelihood on the y-axis and the shot chance displayed on the game on the x-axis. “H” means “hit”, “M” means “miss”.
With the addition of the skills Lightning Hands and Quickdraw, a Sharpshooter can hit a single target five times. This creates a situation where it is highly unlikely to miss all shots; a shot likelihood of 37% leads to a situation where there is a 90% chance that at least one shot will connect, for example.
Fig 8: Graph showing the odds of at least five, four, three, two, one, or no shots hitting the target, with the outcome likelihood on the y-axis and the shot chance displayed on the game on the x-axis. “H” means “hit”, “M” means “miss”.
Fig 9: Graph showing the odds of at least one, two, three, four, or five of the shots hitting the target, with the outcome likelihood on the y-axis and the shot chance displayed on the game on the x-axis. “H” means “hit”, “M” means “miss”.
Overdrive (Shen’s Last Gift DLC)
Overdrive allows a SPARK to take three shots in a row – connecting with all three unlocks the Always be Shooting achievement. When using this skill, SPARK doesn’t necessarily have to shoot; it can take any three separate actions. Shooting three times is tactically a rare occurrence as it relies on having a full clip at the beginning of the turn and not moving before taking any shots in that turn.
Overdrive causes a significant aim penalty to any SPARKS without the Adaptive Aim skill. The first shot has normal aim values, but the second has a 15% aim penalty and the third has a 30% aim penalty. If the first shot has a hit probability lower than 15% then neither of the subsequent shots can hit.
Fig 10: Graph showing the odds of three, two, one, or no shots hitting the target, with the outcome likelihood on the y-axis and the success chance of the first shot displayed on the game on the x-axis. The dashed line shows the odds of each shot individually. “H” means “hit”, “M” means “miss”.
Fig 11: Graph showing the odds of at least one, two, or three shots hitting the target, with the outcome likelihood on the y-axis and the success chance of the first shot displayed on the game on the x-axis. The dashed line shows the odds of each shot individually. “H” means “hit”, “M” means “miss”.
The Adaptive Aim skill negates the aim penalties on second and third Overdrive shots, making the average damage output much higher when firing multiple times in one turn.
Fig 13: Graph showing the odds of at least one, two, or three shots hitting the target, with the outcome likelihood on the y-axis and the success chance of the first shot displayed on the game on the x-axis. “H” means “hit”, “M” means “miss”.
Future Plans and Acknowledgements
First I’d like to say thanks to Firaxis for making XCOM 2, and to the guys at the 2K forums and the XCOM Wiki for providing me with some of the information to write this. I’d also like to thank my parents for the WiFi and electricity, my mate Dan for building my computer, Microsoft for developing Excel and Windows, and Valve for starting Steam.
In the future I’d like to expand on these graphs, incorporating damage spread or the RNG skew during consecutive hits/misses. I also want to move to Canada and work in epidemiology, but that’s not really relevant right now.
All content written and drawn entirely by BloodaxeUK. Permission is granted to print off sections of this guide for personal use, but permission must be given by myself or a Valve or Firaxis employee in order to reproduce or disseminate this content. (However, if you ask nicely, chances are I’ll agree.)
Comments or questions are welcome. Enjoy your game!