Scenario Walk Through: Operation Lightning Strike

Overview

A complete walk through of Operation Lightning Strike: 2014, focusing on the decisions required and how to implement them using the tools in the CMANO engine. This is currently a WIP and will be added to as the scenario progresses.

Introduction

This guide is based on a play through of Operation Lightning Strike: 2014 and will demonstrate some of the more advanced capabilities of the CMANO engine, focusing on the aviation aspects.

Part 1: Scenario Overview & First Thoughts

It’s July 2014 and rogue elements of the Pakistani military have taken control of Minhas AFB in northern Pakistan, close to the Afghan border. The base contains a number of nuclear weapons, which are being used to threaten India with “God’s Fury” if they don’t immediately relinquish control of Kashmir.

The Pakistani authorities have declared that this is an “Internal Matter” and warned that they will defend their airspace. India and Iran have both adopted defensive postures and are on a hair trigger.

Naturally it falls to Team America to sort it out. America, ♥♥♥♥ YEAH!!! (Sorry, no more Team America references I promise!)

I have 48 hours to destroy the nukes.

In order of priority, the objectives are:
1. Destroy the bunker and any TEL in the area
2. Avoid friendly casualties
3. Don’t provoke India or Iran into a shooting war
4. Minimise Pakistani casualties

Here is a map of the target area:

Here is a map of the AO

Diego Garcia
Diego Garcia – B-2A (x2), B-52H (x8), KC-10A (x6)

Afghanistan
Bagram A/B – Reaper UAV (x3), F-16 blk 40 (x14), EA-6B (x6), A10C (x8)
Kandahar – AV-8B (x6), RQ-170A Wraith (x1)

Oman
Masirah – P3C Orion (x6)
Thumrait – KC-10 (x10)

UAE
Al Dhafra – F22A (x12), RQ-4B Global Hawk (x2), U-2S (x2), KC-135 (x8), E-3C Sentry (x3)

Qatar
Al Udeid – KC-135 (x10), RC-135V (x2), RC-135W (x2)

Kuwait
Ali Al Salem – F/A-18D (x12)

Djibouti
Djibouti-Ambouli – F-15E (x8), RQ-1B (x4)

Cyprus
Akrotiri – RQ-4B Global Hawk (x2)

Naval Vessels
Arabian Gulf – USS Hopper (Arleigh Burke Flight I), USS Winston S. Churchill (Arleigh Burke Flight IIA)

Indian Ocean – USS Hawaii (Virginia Class SSN), USS Ohio (Ohio Class SSGN), USS Halsey (Arleigh Burke Flight IIA), USS Jimmy Carter (Seawolf Class SSN)

There are definitely a lot of toys available, but the big problem is going to be bringing them to bear on the target. Most of the fire-power is concentrated south of Pakistan, including the B-2’s, the force in Afghanistan isn’t large enough on it’s own to overpower the PAF, nor do they have any anti-radar missiles (these are all in Kuwait), and with India and Iran on a hair trigger and assumed hostile to any overflights, I’ve no desire to risk a shooting war by using their airspace either of them (especially as most of my forces are in spitting distance of Iran).

This leaves with me four options:

Option 1
Full on Alpha Strike through the heart of Pakistan. Dramatic, but high risk and probable losses are high.
Option 2
Strike from Afghanistan. Direct route, but forces in Afghanistan are insufficient for expected opposition.
Option 3
Go the long way round and get my forces round to the Afghan side of Pakistan. Not a quick route, tankers and landing space may be a problem. Separates aircraft from their ammo, especially as they will be in ferry config.
Option 4
Stealth strike following route 1. I’m not confident in the ability of the B-2s to remain undetected and even if they do, once weapons are released they will be defenceless, with a high probability of weapons being shot down en route to target.

There are a couple of game changing tools:

• MALD Decoys in Diego Garcia will allow me to goad the Pakistani IADS and PAF into showing their hand, leaving them open to return fire
• Between the Naval vessels, there are well over 300 cruise missiles, even the furthest sub can reach anywhere in Pakistan

So, what to do? My outline plan is as follows:

1. Establish a cordon on the Afghan border and south of Pakistan’s coast, conducting recon over the target area with the RQ-170A during the first night
2. Use decoys to goad the PAF into a fight over south Pakistan and ambush them with F-22s, taking out immediate SAM threats with HARMs from the Kuwaiti F-18s
3. Unleash a hailstorm of cruise missiles on any identified air defence targets
4. As the bulk of the PAF return to base to refuel, run the B-2s over Pakistan along the Iranian border, swinging east over southern Afghanistan to launch AGM-158As against the target
5. Follow up with a strike from Afghanistan if necessary

Part 2: Arming & First Orders

So now I have an outline plan, first task is to get the aircraft loaded. Reloading takes time so I have to make choices now.

As a guide:

Refuel: 30 minutes
Load A2A: 2 Hours
Load A2G: 6 Hours
Strategic Load: 20 Hours (B2, B52 etc)

This means that I have to commit to loading my Strategic Assets now if I’m to be able to use them.

My B2s are loaded with these bunker busting bad boys:

Of note is the range of 215nm, which means I’m going to have to get most of the way through Pakistan prior to launch, confirming that my plan to try establish a corridor to Afghanistan and then swinging back round to launch about 150nm from the target behind a cordon of F-16s.

To help probe the IADS, I’ve loaded 4 of my B52s with air launched decoys:
These can be launched from well off the Pakistani coast, leaving the B52s out of weapon range

Elsewhere:

• Kuwait based F-18s are being loaded up with a mix of HARMs and SLAMMER cruise missiles in order to strike southern Pakistan air defences
• Afghanistan based F-16s are being loaded to provide CAP along the border
• Djibouti based F-15s are being loaded with GBU-39s as a “just in case”
• UAE based F22s are being loaded with A2A loadouts without drop tanks to help them operate in proximity to PAF defences, I will compensate for this with plentiful tanker cover

The long lead time for strategic assets means there is going to be an enforced period of recon and preparation, which I am going to use to assess and probe the Pakistani defences, but first I need to establish a cordon around Pakistani airspace which will allow my non-combat units to operate with relative impunity.

As a precaution, I have established a series of No Navigation Zones (NNZ), which will ensure my aircraft don’t stray into Pakistan before I’m ready to strike or (more importantly) provoke India or Iran into joining the shooting war!

There are four:

• Afghan Border NNZ
• Pakistani Coast NNZ
• Iranian NNZ
• Indian NNZ

As the shooting starts I may remove them, but until that point they will be a failsafe for my orders.

Afghanistan
I have assigned 8 F-16s to AAW patrol along the border. My patrol area should keep them far enough away from the border not to provoke a response, but anything that crosses into the prosecution area (which butts up against the NNZ) will be intercepted.

Pakistani Coast
F22s have been assigned to patrol the airspace south of the Pakistani coast. They will be supported by E-3C and RC-135 providing AEW and ELINT capabilities.

The Prosecution Zone will cause them to investigate any contact crossing the coast in time to defend the nearby AWACS, but again the NNZ will stop them crossing into Pakistan in pursuit.

Refuelling loops have been set up off the coast of Oman to support the patrols.

Elsewhere
USS Hopper and USS Winston S. Churchill have been ordered to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in order to reposition so that they can attack Pakistan without firing over Iranian territory. The USS Hawaii is also repositioning further to the east.

Global Hawks from Cyprus are taking the long route round north of Iran to provide support in Afghanistan.

Part 3: Hours 1-2; Containment and Observation

Almost as soon as my first F-16 takes off, I get new contacts along the Pakistani border, mostly aircraft but I also detect one more radar. For the most part they seem to be keeping to their side of the border (albeit a bit to close for comfort), so there’s no need to start shooting and I’m content for now to keep my aircraft back from the border, just in case.

In other news, I notice that my EA-6B Prowlers have HARMs at Bagram, happy days! Whilst it’s not enough to change my plan, they will come in handy later. It should be a basic point, but this is a reminder to me check the weapons available at each base via the “Magazines” menu, not just look at the weapons already loaded onto each aircraft.

In a few hours I will launch my RQ-170A to penetrate Pakistani airspace, but I want to wait for cover of darkness.

Most of the first hour is spent marshalling everyone into position in their assigned areas. Sporadic airborne contacts are detected over southern Pakistan, the most interesting being a Chinese made Y-8F-400 based AWACS. I will need to take it down at some point, but I don’t need to commit to the how just yet.

On the ground, a significant number of previously unknown contacts have been detected around PAF Masroor and PAF Faisal. More Tomahawk fodder I suspect, although the amount of 35mm Oerlikon AAA in the area may complicate matters later.

The fly in the ointment for the first couple of hours is the location of F251 Zulfiquar, an F-22P class FFG, south of PAF Pasni. Whilst the anti-air capabilities are nothing to write home about (the HQ-7 Crotale SAMs have a maximum range of 5 miles), it is currently heading south east at 30 knots, straight into the middle of my patrol area. Left unchecked I’m certain it’s going to cause problems for any unwary aircraft, and the 70nm range of the C-802 ASMs will deny firing position to my ships heading through the Strait of Hormuz. Unfortunately it’s out of range of all my naval anti-ship weapons, and my preferred airborne option (SLAM-ER missiles on Hornets) won’t be ready to take off (never mind in attack position) for another 4 hours. As with the AEW, I don’t need to hit it right now, but I want to be able to strike fast and hard if the shooting starts early.

Part 4: Hours 3-6; Incursions, First Shots and Stealth Recon

Finally I get my first proper border crossing from a PAF contact. A single bogie from PAF Samungli enters clean into the southern end of Afghan airspace. As it’s still a distance from Kandahar, I scramble a pair of F-16s from Bagram, ordering my existing patrols to return to refuel rather than risk them reaching Bingo fuel before intercept. Mysteriously the contact drops off radar about 20 miles from Kandahar and a search of the area by the freshly launched alert pair turns up nothing, I assume the contact turned back across the border, it was travelling too fast to be a helicopter so I’m more confused than concerned.

After another hour of uneventful patrolling, AWACS tracks a pair of Pakistani J-7s heading south from the direction of Samungli. They head for the coast, just at the India/Pakistan border before turning directly for my patrolling RC-135 Rivet Joint. As no shots have been fired up to this point, I have a decision to make, do I shoot or not? At this point it still could be a patrol so I order my Rivet Joints to reverse direction, just to see what happens. Both J-7s turn to maintain intercept course, making my decision for me. The nearest F-22 is vectored on and ordered to engage both targets. Both fall to AMRAAM shots without returning fire.

This leaves a couple of dilemas, am I now weapons free? And do I need to strike the radars? The first was answered when a Mirage appears from the vicinity of PAF Masroor and made a beeline for my AWACS, necessitating another F-22 intervention. I am now weapons free on the south coast, and will regard any incursions in the north as hostile. Fighters continue to be launched Intermittently and are intercepted.

The second became more pressing when my F-22s intercepted a pair of F-16 Blk 52s. Up to this point my F-22s (which have no external stores) have been using AWACS cueing to get missiles onto target without having to turn on their radar. They are as stealth as can be and maximum range AMRAAM shots are keeping them out of harms way. Pakistani F-16s carry AMRAAMS, giving them the same striking range as my F-22s, and when both my F-22s receive counter-shots near-simultaneous to their AMRAAMs reaching their targets, alarm bells start to ring. Fortunately both engagements are inconclusive, but the timing means that my F-22s are not as hidden as I would like, so knocking down radars becomes an immediate priority.

I have nothing in place to strike the frigate and my HARM equipped Hornets are a few hours away from ready, so I launch a Tomahawk strike from the USS Ohio against the radar at PAF Pasni and the radars in the vicinity of PAF Masroor and PAF Faisal. As expected, the radar at Pansi is hit, but only one missile survives the defences at Faisal/Masroor to knock out one of the three radars. All is not lost however, intelligence gathered confirms that the air defences in the area are all short ranged SAMs. This becomes key because when the incercepts cease it becomes clear that there are no more fighters supporting the PAF AWACS. My fighers are still on station due to refuelling support so I temporarily suspend the Coastal NNZ and dash one of my F22s directly at the AWACS, taking it down with a pair of AMRAAMs from just short of the coast.

So, three radars down, three to go, one on the frigate and two at PAF Masoor, these will have to wait until my Hornets are ready.

In order to hunt for the TEL I launch my RQ-170A Wraith from Kandahar. Unlike the more famous Global Hawk and Reaper drones, this is a stealth drone so perfect for taking a good look at the target area using FLIR. It is also fitted with a ground radar but this will make it stand out like a christmas tree so is very much a last resort.

Approaching the target area at max altitude, the FLIR identifies some mobile targets, but can’t get a positive ID on the launchers so I order another pass at ~20,000ft, a couple more passes and I have identified two launchers and a number of SAMs but have also detected another AWACS nearby, so I beat a hasty retreat in order to escape any fighters that have been sent to intercept. I still have enough fuel to return on this sortie, and failing that I have time to return afresh before I need to strike.

Part 5: Hours 7-11; Taking Control

I revert to the old adage about discretion being the better part of valour and allow my RQ-170A to return to Kandahar, I’ve still got time for more sorties, it’s still a >10 hours until my B2s are ready to launch. In the interim I launch a Predator drone from Bagram to patrol the border and continue gaining SIGINT.

Shortly after launching the Predator I get a number of simultaneous contacts, a JF-17 to the north of Bagram (Hostile #1), a J-7 to the south of Bagram (Hostile #2) and an indeterminate contact just across the border. Hostile #1 is detected launching a missile as Hostile #2 crosses the border, it’s clear that this is no social call. Almost immediately my Reaper takes a missile and goes down, I still don’t know exactly what shot at it, but I assume it’s Hostile #2’s wingman as the contact gets weaker. Hostile #2 goes down to AMRAAM shots from the nearest F-16.

Hail #12 avoid’s Hostile #1’s missiles, but the AMRAAM counter fire proves ineffective, with Hostile #1 turning for home. Then I make a stupid decision, in a fit of bravado (or possibly blind rage), I order Hail #12 to press the attack at close range. Hail #12 gives chase and closes to AIM-9 range, firing both missiles to no effect. Hostile #1 holds course, preferring to run for home it seems. Now down to guns only, it seems Hail #12 smells blood and closes to spitting distance, I watch with horror as his first shots miss and he overshoots, leading to gunfire from Hostile #1 (fortunately just as effective as my gunfire). I immediately order Hail #12 to disengage and RTB, luckily Hostile #1 doesn’t give chase.

Incensed, I scramble my remaining alert fighters and my HARM carrying EA-6Bs, hoping to provoke a further fight, this time with numbers on my side. Not having an AWACs in Afghanistan leaves me somewhat blind, so my first strike is cautious, using my HARMs to take out some of the SAM sites on the nearest PAF base. Disappointingly, despite the apparent gaggle of potential contacts in the south east (visible on the picture), the response from the PAF is somewhat lacklustre and the only fighter that climbs to meet us is a single J-7 which is promptly dispatched. Feeling emboldened, I make another dash for the PAF AWACS just beyond the target airbase and bring it down. If I can’t take on their fighters, I’m going to blind them. My EA-6Bs and some of my F-16s return to base, leaving the remainder on station inside Pakistan. My patience is rewarded an hour later with another AWACs kill.

As soon as my RQ-170A has refuelled, I send it back to the target area to try use the radar to try for a positive ID on the remaining targets. It is met at the target by a flight of F-16s who will deal with any fighters which attempt to intervene. Again a lone J-7 climbs to meet us and the outcome is, predictably, a lone fireball falling to the ground through the night sky. Frustratingly, whilst the radar speeds up target location, I’m not able to get any clarity on what the remaining unidentified targets are. Unless I am able to positively identify the three remaining targets, I will have to assume that they are TELs and destroy them. I re-base my drone to Bagram (to shorten transit times) and return home to prepare a large SEAD strike on the target area. I will have another go in daylight with my Global Hawks from Cyprus, which are nearing the Afghan border after a monumental 11 hour transit.

My F-18s are now ready to go, so I order them up in pairs, routing them along the Saudi coast towards Oman, in order to keep well clear of Iran. This transit will take a while and I plot a course directly to the area of my tanker patrols. Simultaneously my surface group will be passing through the Strait of Hormuz, just off the UAE coast. I also dispatch two flights of F-15Es from Djibouti to provide additional hitting power against opportunity targets.

PAF activity on the south coast has been much reduced, with only the occasional sortie by (seemingly missile proof!) F-16 Blk52s. Whilst I appear to be winning the air war, I now have a strategic problem, my stock of AMRAAMs at Al Dhafra is running low (most having been shot at the bloody F-16s!), if shooting continues I may have to re-base my F-22s in Djibouti (my nearest remaining AMRAAM stockpile), which increases transit times and may even force the use of drop tanks, which will reduce the stealthiness of my patrols.

As my F-18’s arrive on scene, I order them to attack the pesky FFG, which falls to a hail of SLAM-ERs, before proceeding to attack the remaining radar installation with HARMs. As predicted, the ground defences defeat the majority of the missiles, but enough get through to take out the longest range radar on site. A lone missile sponge F-16 attempts to intervene, the event log suggests it shot it’s AMRAAMs at the incoming HARMs, so I vector a pair of F-22s onto it and bring it down as it turns for home (though not before evading even more of my missiles). Much air punching is done in celebration. My F-18s are re-directed to Masirah in Oman to re-arm with SLAM-ERs.

The SEAD strike has been less successful than I hoped, with two radars still operational. To finish the job I launch near-simultaneous missile strikes from USS Ohio and USS Hawaii, targeting the radars only. Despite a number of missiles being destroyed en-route, both radars are destroyed. Without the radars, the base is now blind and effectively mission-killed. Unless the situation changes significantly I no longer need to consider it as a threat and I will not be striking it again.

With the elimination of the Pakistani radars along the south coast and the sinking of the FFG, the route to Afghanistan for my B2s is clear of Pakistani radar coverage. The current plan is for them to arrive on the south coast, refuel and then head up through the western edge of Pakistan before transiting through Afghanistan and swinging round to strike the target from the north (illustrated in pink). This means than they can attack from within range of friendly fighter coverage and minimises the possibility of missiles overflying previously undetected air defences. Prior to this I aim to have suppressed defences in the target area.