Praise the Victories (RNG Minimization Guide)

This scenario varies so wildly that a good map is necessary for victory to even be possible[0] (and even then it took me three full attempts[1] before I finally won). Having unlocked all but two achievements[2], I must say that this is the most RNG-heavy scenario I’ve ever seen. Thus, I wholeheartedly endorse using the map this saint posted[forums.civfanatics.com] years ago. The following is based around said map, and even with the wonderful mountain range to shield you on three sides, it is still quite challenging, and there is always a non-zero chance that you will lose through no fault of your own.

“It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness.
That is life.” — Jean-Luc Picard, Star Trek: The Next Generation

A few general tips: I highly recommend Kalle’s more in-depth guides on general strategies specific to this achievement[www.kalle-online.net], his overview of the scenario[www.kalle-online.net] (if unfamiliar or in need of a refresher), and Pgh player’s tips[forums.civfanatics.com] (as the following is a variant of the ‘turtled up’ approach outlined). Use autosaves—and quick saves—extensively. If the game is going to cheat through sheer RNG, then you must be able to even the odds and turn back time to preemptively react to unpredictable, unmitigable disasters.

Example: When two European powers declare war on you together, reload the quick save you made at the end of your turn (because you don’t want to go back and redo everything). Ask Ethiopia or Egypt—your only friendly allies—to pay you to declare war on the lesser, farther evil. Then go about your next turn completely unaffected by the imminent danger on your doorstep with a little extra coin and/or happiness.

Additionally, you may find it useful to disable single player quick combat. Only beginners and advanced players watch the animations. Otherwise, it can be unclear what the biggest danger was during a sprawling battle (and more importantly, it is too easy to lose track of a vital scout dying by a thousand cuts while auto-healing in the wilderness).

Proper city placement is key. In this map, both cities will be founded between sheep and iron. You will need to purchase tiles and manually assign citizens in your capital immediately so that they don’t accidentally starve themselves. Unfortunately, starvation is unavoidable in your second city and the population will hover at 3 until improvements are made.

You start the game with four units. And you will need a bare minimum of four units to lockdown your valley. Seriously, no visitors—ever! Maintain that line of defense at all costs, and gradually push it out and you’ll do fine[3]. Unfortunately, one of the four units must immediately get voted off the island (and will likely never return).

Seriously, this is deity difficulty, you have no happiness. Left untended, it will tear down your: production, combat effectiveness, and lower your cultural output (because there’s a social policy to unlock that’ll funnel that extra happiness right into culture/VP). So in order to mitigate that—and offset the limited number of zoos you can build—I highly recommend getting the permanent happiness boosts earned for discovering natural wonders.

So have your exile follow the Zulu migration northward, threading the needle between where they settle and Portugal (get an embassy and open borders with her upon meeting her if the Zulus block your path). There are four wonders to visit on your pilgrimage: Mt. Kilimanjaro, Lake Victoria, King Solomon’s Mines, and the Source of the Nile.

Note: Pretend Ethiopia and Egypt hold all that territory, the best screenshots I had were late game[4].

Because this map is luckier than the original poster may have ever known, all four wonders are close by on the same side of the map. I recommend Mt. Kilimanjaro first because it gives the unit double movement speed on hills (and every bit helps). Past that, it doesn’t really matter. You could swing around by the Mines on your return journey, or put the roads Ethiopia hopefully paved to good use. In addition to happiness, your journey will provide your economy with some of the only stimuli that it will ever get as you meet city states. If you are like me, you’ll spend most of the game in the red, hemorrhaging funds.

Like real world governments, there are no consequences for poor fiscal policy </sarcasm>. So don’t worry too much about it. I never had units disband. But I did build the occasional finance building when brief opportunities presented themselves.

Additionally, Egypt and Ethiopia will be your only friends, trading partners if you ever accrue luxury resources (or a surplus of starting iron… 😏) to trade for exotic goods to boost happiness, GDP.

First and foremost, the Zulus are a capricious lot. If their leader senses weakness, he will attack. Their units also have three movement. As such, they can come over hills in a single bound. Build up a minimum viable army to hold the key choke points and add in a rifled cannon or two to ward him off (by force if worse comes to worse—which if it does, his units’ pitiful volley and followup melee attacks are great at pumping EXP). I had one city focus on units while another built two caravans to deliver food to each city[5] (there might also have been a watermill in the second city). Caravans will be able to travel the corridor in complete safety, and improvements will remain unpillaged since no invading force will ever set foot there. So build up! Focus on farms (for food and culture), and link up your cities early with roads. Try not to waste a single worker movement in the early game.

I experimented with both production[6] and food caravans, and the food ones were inherently superior. Not only do they provide more citizens to work improvements (with only two cities, a large population is good for this strategy), but there will also be more specialists to assign to guilds. Also, ensure that once the capital won’t starve itself, set it to auto and ensure that manually assigning specialists is not checked—otherwise, unemployed citizens won’t be doing anything!

In between cranking out soldiers, build up cultural buildings! Guild-wise, build the: Artists’ first (lots of great work painting slots); Writers’ thereafter (I put it in the 2nd city to diversify great people production, but maybe that’s not optimal); Musicians’ last of the guilds not many great work music slots to fill). The sooner these go up, probably the better (so you can switch city focus to great people production), but you’ll need slots for all the works the great people generate.

In addition to three slots, the Hermitage doubles culture in a city (go for the capital for synergy with the extra palace bonus slot). Unfortunately, this requires an amphitheater and an opera house in all cities—which is a tall order when supporting the war machine, combatting unhappiness and bankruptcy. Also, build the Staatsmuseums, the Boer-specific building replacing the museum that comes with a great work preinstalled!

Building a garden in the second city (since it is by a river) will increase great person generation by 25%. Building the National Epic in the Capital will do the same—in addition to coming with another great slot (just like the Heroic Epic, which also makes all units built in that city +15% more effective[7]).

At some point, your civilization should go from precarious to stable. At that time, it’s best to expand and gain even more culture from felling foes. I recommend going south (hopefully, against the Zulus or England), as that valley is easy to hold with a line of forts and citadels. If you can avoid it, don’t put two citadels next to each other. Put a fort in between to spread out the ring of pain enemies must avoid/endure. And remember, no culture is gained when enemies expire by merely standing next to citadels. So try to pick them off with rifled canons (or use the foreign volunteer unit’s unique ability of regaining 25 HP on a kill to cultivate: culture, victory, and health). As mentioned before, I recommend avoiding northern expansion due to trickier defensive logistics. Additionally, Portugal is more likely to lurk there. Somehow, I avoided war with them the entire game I won. Although if memory serves, that was uncommon during my nine partial attempts. Also note that it is extremely unusual for her to declare war on you on her own. But it is possible. If you’re feeling lucky, send some caravans her way to make money. Unfortunately, know that if you are at war with England, English troops may be stationed on Portuguese soil, standing ready to intercept your wares. Use your workers to make an extensive road network to rush troops to the front and maneuver cannons in hilly terrain. After you take the former Zulu capital, be prepared to defend it from the constant onslaught on the beach and sea. You may need a ring of quickly expiring soldiers around the city to hold it. Its natural resources will be more than enough of a boon to make it worth taking.

Because I promoted my cannons on rough terrain, two of them got the double attack and extra range promotion by the end to wreak havoc on the high seas. Unfortunately, I did not have a flat land promoted one, which made clearing the beach harder than necessary (so learn from my mistake). Also, treat all melee units like the orc with the fuse in Lord of the Rings. Canons and ships will ensure that the city has zero health, but as long as a melee unit is not permitted to pass—or land—the city cannot fall [again].

At this point, the game ended for me, and I won. I hope you do too, and that this guide helped in some small way. Please let me know if you found it helpful, or have additional insights to help fellow players.

Note: My cities were cranking out units during the final stretch upon capturing Ulundi (I just switched to factory production for vanity upon acquiring English coal).

[0] When paired with deity difficulty, this scenario is so unbalanced that Ethiopia is often ordained to win. So when making calculations of if victory is even possible during the midgame based on their trajectory, remember: 1 Culture Point ≠ 1 Victory Point (VP).
[1] Ethiopia had too much momentum for me to catch up in the first two (we were neck and neck in the second match). And in the final game where I won, Italy decided to conquer every single Ethiopian city—save for one—by the end of the last turn (thus plateauing Ethiopia’s score, and allowing me to pull ahead in the final 5 turns).
[2] Ottoman Carpentry and Pax Romana Aeternum still await me.
[3] And likely better than me, because as you can see, I allowed myself to get bogged down on the southern front. So as long as you're lucky enough for Ethiopia not to be destined to win, there is a considerable enough margin for the minimum number of points needed to win (as you can see between the discrepancies with my high score and the ones everyone else posts online).
[4] And of all the times I played, Ethiopia only refused to offer open borders once. So if that happens don't lose heart! Rather, assume that attitude will get him crushed by Italy like he did in my game.
[5] Not sure how that works logistically, perhaps the caravans are actually hunter gatherers who scrounge up supplies on their trek and deliver them to cities in need like soldiers living off the land in war.
[6] Building forges and the Ironworks worked out better when paired with food caravans.
[7] This stacks quite nicely with the other +15% bonus from the friendly territory policy, unit adjacency policy, and great general proximity—which are invaluable for withstanding future bombardments.